01 NOV 2011: RANGE BOUND MOVES

Hi guys good morning as we discussed yesterday nifty is likely to be in a range between 5200-5500....so any move towards either end should be used to short respective options....the above chart by dear RCG ji also indicates towards present move being a corrective one...good luck...

31 oct 2011: TUG OF WAR

Hi guys good morning..we are back after festive season...the close above 5200 showed its colors as we had discussed in the blog earlier..now we r likely to be stuck in a range between 5200-5500...the above chart is by dear RCG ji and has notes annotated....

• if u see the above chart then a tick above 5410 will take nifty towards white line between 5460-5500....so any move towards 5250-5300 should be used to short puts and 5500 levels to short calls with SL 5532...premium sucking will happen for next 10 days or so...
• Keep an eye on infosys if it closes above 3030 then it will be the first stock to be in bull orbit and will give initial indication of fresh bull run in Indian markets....and pls do not go by fundamental news they will remain negative till markets do not recover major levels...good luck

HAPPY DIWALI TO ALL DEAR FRIENDS

• HI Friends i came back early morning 5'o clock from an important task so i am giving a late update...the above two charts by Dear RCG Ji are self explanatory and provide views on short and long side as well...
• RBI has now hinted towards peaking of rate cycle and if europe also gives positive tail winds then we might take over 5200...to be on safer side any longs should be taken above 5200 closing basis or 5235 tick...
• we suggest that please do not carry over positions for friday and trade only on confirmation..good luck

24 OCT 2011:TRAPPING ACTION

HI guys good morning so our short call did surprise many at the last hour...it happens.. we r entering a truncated week and many more traps and sudden moves will happen ..we r trying to give u safety points in our blog 2day...

the above chart is EW analysis by dear RCG ji...notes are as follows :-

Bholey ka Damroo & Maiya ka nratya:

--------------------------------------------------------------

A: 5160-5011=149 ( 3 wave )

Therefore this is expected that ^B^ should take the form

Other than Zig zag { though nothing is RULE bound in this regard}

B: 5011- continued

B:a: 5011-5148=137

B:b: 5148- Max Target 4960

B:b:a: 5148-5034=114

B:b:b: 5034-5120=86 { perhaps completed or may do some more}

B:b:c: 5120- 5038 = 82 ( although the minimum requirement

As B:b:c has been done as well as the

Minimum requirement to qualify as of other

Than ZZ form of ^B^ ( 5148-5038=110 =

80% of B:a ) ( guided to be of other than ZZ

Form on account of “A” being a three wave.

But seeing the shape of wave “ dil abhee

Bhara nahee “ & wishing for this B:b:c to be

Of atleat 114 points ,to take maiya at 5006.

1. As per these counts. this down side move cant go below 4960

2. as per will of maiya, from the point whether it is 5038 or lower we should

Expect a upmove of minimum 85 points to 210 points { But not above 5170 }

3 If maiya jumps over(i) 5076 Target(5006), we will have to leave our hopes to meet that target of 5006.

DEEPAWALI CRACKERS:

May almighty maiya bless the all along with the above mentioned EW counts.!!

1 Matka trade Idea : if we see Maiya at around 5006 ,at that time 5200 culle( October) Should be on dirt cheap price ,so why should not we buy them ( SL 4960) for return in ROI Terms, & when maiya will be on fire then we will apply Point no. 2

2 One more trade idea on the auspicious occasion of Deepawalee :

At the level nearest to 5170 ( if maiya don’t go down to 5038 then we should start the action at 5123 ) we may sell 5000 culle / or buy 5200/5100/5000/4900 pulle ( NOVEMBER ) having a target of sub 4900/4925 or little lower levels ! ( with stop loss in upside 5170/5217 )

SOME ALERT POINTS : ( Valid until any bell out of 7 rings )

( all wave riders can easily understand the significance of these points, i am putting them here just for ready reference )

As all are well aware that Maiya is Supreme, & none can rule her, this is just a observation & always prone to be proved wrong.

5197: 1^st Danger point for Bears

5329: 2^nd & confirm Danger point for Bears

4958: ( in the immediate current down move) Danger point for Bears

4930:(in the next down move after the upmove following the current down move) non achievement of this point may trigger a danger bell to bears

4827: 1^st Danger point to Bulls ( perhaps may be proved as a advance alert )

4727: 2^nd Danger point to Bulls

4719: 3^rd Danger point to Bulls

Best of Luck, all friends & weavovisitors !

rcg

We still stick to this channel shown in the above chart as guide for the nifty ...the top is at 5120...so one can expect markets to open gap up and try to test these levels...one can try his luck by going short here with SL 5125 and conversion to longs above it for a gain of around 40 points on either side... suggested way is use of short options rather then going with futures...although any thing is possible in this heavy news flow eventful truncated week so small small trades will be beneficial...good luck..

22 OCT 2011: THE OTHER POSSIBILITY

MUST KEEP IN VIEW, VIEW FOR BEARS

In our mutual friends now a days it is a preferred assumption that, just after these present grinding moves, Nifty will go for a deep dive say for 600-700 points. (If not sub 4000, though some of us are of this opinion firmly)

Before putting any Big money on stake in the stock market, depending on Elliot wave analysis (or any other analysis), we must be very cautious.

As far as the waves are concerned, it has been always difficult if not impossible to label them exactly as per rules of EW. So many times, because of our failure to understand them exactly, we are forced to accept them as they are; even they are not satisfying the guidelines/ rules (some time).

Being inspired by above facts, I here by put an ALTERNATE COUNT of waves, which must be kept in mind as a precautionary measure.

To accept or to keep in mind these counts, we have to accept that at 4720 the down ward correction as wave C from 5944 has been over. & the action thereafter is an upward action.

COUNTS:

DOWN ward ^C^ ended at 4720 (There are some apparent short comings to accept it)

SW-1: 4720-5169=449

SW2: 5169- continued

SW-2: W: 5169-4758=411

A: 5169-4911=258

B: 4911-5168=257

C: 5168-4758=410

SW-2: X: 4758-5034=276

SW-2: Y: 5034- continued

A: 5034-4728=306

B: 4728-5160(close at 5118) =432(390) (141%/128%) (I saw this

Discrepancy many times)

C: 5160-

Thus for eliminating the possibility as per above counts, we have to at least wait to breach 4720 to lower side.

With sweet love ! To all dear friends & visitors at Dear harshal ji’s blog

Weavologic !

rcg

21 OCT: MARKETS HAVE SHOWN THE CHANNEL

Hi Guys good morning....as we discussed yesterday nifty did behave as per our first two targets ..and as i told u that i was not sure of nifty testing 5010 yesterday so it did happen....lets see ahead the likely scenario...the above chart is by dear RCG ji and notes are as below...

Maiya on Guru-Pushya yog

---------------------------------------------

A: 5160-5011=149 ( 3 wave { little change in observation } )

Therefore this is expected that ^B^ should take the form

Other than Zig zag { though nothing is RULE bound in this regard}

B: 5011- continued

B:a: 5011-5148=137

B:b: 5148- Max Target 4960

B:b:a: 5148-5034=114

B:b:b: 5034-5099 { perhaps completed or may do some more}

B:b:c: 5099 ( or the point where B:b:b ends)-

Expected to do 70 points to 114 points or exceptionally

Little more, but not more than 140 points

Giving the lower targets 5029/4985/4960

Best of Luck !

rcg

• OK folks as u know my way is firmly the shakespeareian style "BREVITY IS THE SOUL OF WIT"...so i study a lot but put it in few simple lucid sentences...
• if u see the above chart..the yellow channel will guide the prices now and most likely they are down...in case we close above this channel for 2 days and esp above 5235 then there will be a short term rally till 5500 odd levels
• Why i was hoping that 5177 will not be crossed bcoz it will damage the wave count of this intermediate wave C starting from 5940....so we are likely in wave 5 of this C and likely to cover around 700 points culminating around 4550....that should also mark the end to this corrective phase in Indian markets....
• for 2day i advise shorting on every rise towards 5140..with SL 5177..good luck..

20 OCT 2011: ELUSIVE WAVES

Deepawali preparations

Hi guys good morning i hope u enjoyed our call yesterday which was almost bang on word by word...Dear RCG ji has got two scenarios for the present move which are explained in following paragraphs...

1. Scenario (i)

If 5160-5011=149 was Part A of the Corrective

&

5011-5148=137 ( contd.) was B:a

Then Short BINDAS if not done so far with SL at 5217( 5220)

For Target Minimum 5011

2. scenario (ii)

If 5160-5011=149 was Part A of the Corrective

&

5011-5148 ( contd) was B ( though least possible )

Then too short BINDAS if not done so far with SL 5217(5220)

For the Target of Minimum 5011

N.B. Although the Targets in both the scenerios are same at minimum level

But the speed of achieving the target would be different

In scenario (i) it would be little slow than scenario (ii)

Best of Luck

rcg

• Now let us see how trade set up is likely to play ..on the down side...on breach of 5100 nifty should go to 5075 and below 5070 to 5045...once it is in that zone gates will be open for retest of 5010 and below 5000 another 70-100 points....whether we will test 5010 2day, i am not sure...
• On upside will see heavy selling at 5160, 5170 and 5196..2day it looks very difficult to cross 5200...good luck

19 OCT 11: CONFUSION B4 EXECUTION

• Hi guys good morning..our yesterday's call was bang on ...now the game is that we have got a doji formation on daily charts indicating some more range bound move b4 a decisive move up or down...
• The above chart is by rcg ji and the comments are enclosed in the chart itself..One more possibility is that maiya may use some

  Intermediate moves as her BHOG thru opening with Gap.( Maiya is used to do it) So if opening takes place in-between 4985-5005 then a up move for a while is expected

  =rcg

• ok guys the first thing nifty is going to do today is try to enter the gap it made yesterday so buy above 5060 for first target of 5085....if we cross 5090 then we will reach 5118 where heavy shorts will appear to get trapped later in the week...
• for shorting try at the opening with sl above 5060 or wait for 5004 to be broken and then go full throttle short...
• this wave down from 5159 has made ABC formation till now and has bounced back from 1.62 extension of A ..
• if yesterday candle was not a doji and a broader bar then i would have not given a second thought and shorted the market but this gap down doji has played a spoil sport..good luck

18 OCT 11: 38% RETRACEMENT ON THE CARDS

HI guys good morning the above chart is by dear rcg ji and is showing u the limit of breakdown for a likely small retracement till proven to be large..chart is adequately illustrated...

• OK folks now as i told u to join shorters the moment it breaks below 5100...it did so and bounced from 5084 and closed at 5118..u must be thinking that i have given u wrong analysis....no not at all ..infact as u see that the white channel in the above chart has been broken and after that prices went up to retest the lower channel line..which is a basic phenomenon..thats why i did not give a stoploss for that trade....
• Now if we close below 5080 2day or even breach 5055 then surely go short without hesitation for initial target of 4997...lets see what kind of indicators i get 2day for further targets....well as i explained yesterday these waves in the flat rectangle are moving in 3 waves each and the middle wave does either a 38% retracement or 62%...good luck..

17 OCT 11; BEARS WILL ASSAULT

Loving ABC ( Namkaran defered by astrologer)

A: 4729=5045=316

B: 5045-4965=80

C: 4965-continued ( Prob. destination 5161+)

(i)4965-5048=83 ( real distance 91)

(ii)5048-4998=50

(iii)4998-5136=138

(iv) 5136-5057=79

(v) 5057-contd. min 5161( design of this wave is suggesting to go go around 5170 -75) or 5280

N:B: (i) though ended at 5048 ,but ^B^ of (ii)

travelled up to 5056 in this way, maiya dropped

a googly to her Bhakts creating a paradox

that wheather (iii) has done it's minimum or it was left to (v)

to do 138x162% = 224 to hoist the flag at 5281

making the ^c^ of 316 =A

-------------------------

Clue may be hidden in (v)

if maiya after touching above 5170-75 comes back( substantially) and again go back past the high so made

with out breaching 5057 then possibility of 5281 increases many fold or almost sure

• Hi guys good morning..it seems there will be a big fight 2day at 5169 ....we might also open gap up and try to make a break away gap out of this rectangular pattern...a close above 5235 will change lot of dynamics...
• As shown in above chart any pull back towards 5110 should be used to go long...if we break below 5100 then join the shorters...sustaining above 5170 for 30 mins should be used to go long...but do not get faked by initial trapping moves in first 15 mins...good luck

14 OCT : THANK GOD WE HAVE THIS BLOG

• HI guys .....i hope u utilised my charts of DLF ....this is our team*s hattrick after chambal and reliance....
• the above chart shows the wave counts of the wave from 4720 ....comments are annotated in the chart by dear RCG ji.....

in this chart i have tried to give u an idea of the channels and supports....look for a jump up from the yellow lines to go long....and short the moment one 30 min candle closes below them...so the levels for first yellow line are 5065 and 5056...below 5049 expect sharper cuts towards lower line of the channel...

• depending on the results and world markets we might move up or down...but breaking 5049 we should keep 4980 and 4883 in mind...
• i have shown all three waves in this flat between 4720-and 5169...so earlier ones had 38 and 62 % retracements for respective Bs...and then a C which passes the high of A and truncates by not completing 1*A...good luck

13 OCT :momentum maintenance

Hi guys this chart says it all lets see what we do in 5150-5169 zone..dear RCG ji has said it all in the above chart....after we reach in that zone i will post detailed analysis on minute charts also...till then wait and watch..goodluck

DLF : INITIAL CHARTS UPDATED

200 DAY EMS IS AT 235.5...DLF HAS CLOSED ABOVE THAT AFTER AN YEAR PLUS...CURRENT WAVE 3 WILL CHALK OUT ITS WAVE 2 WHICH WILL BE GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY....

12 OCT 2011: MIXED SIGNALS

Hi guys good morning 2day is a heavy news flow day....we need to close above the redline to go to the upper line of white channel ...
This is short term chart i have mentioned fibo levels in yellow...the smaller blue channel is the one moving the prices down and has made major tops at minuete degree till the time this channel is not crossed on upside i advise shorting at any move towards 4990 levels...good luck

11 OCT 2011 INTERIM UPD`ATE

11 OCT 2011 BULLS ALL THE WAY

Hi friends as i wrote yesterday 4950 is long zone it happened that way..now the chart above shows channel of the wave,,,short only below lower line...since line joining 5720-5169 is broken next target should be 5169 with intermediate corrections

the above chart is by dear RCG Ji with anotations...good luck

10 OCT 2011: DAY OF DECISION OR CONFUSION

HI guys good morning the above chart by RCG ji is continuation of our presumption of nifty being in an Ending diagonal....so as per this chart we should play ping pong till some results pour in...
This chart shows the option which might take nifty further down to test 4500 leves...this move is still evolving..so further confirmations are needed...The notes are enclosed in the chart itself
As per channel and pivotes we should play long in case nifty crosses 4952 and on down side play short only below 4830...b4 results nifty generally remains flat so a trade should be on shorting of options on up and down moves...with above figures as stoplosses...

07 OCT 11: FESTIVAL MOOD IN MARKETS ALSO

• Hi guys as we told u on 4th october, the wave ended as per our analysis on time price...although it over shot our support zone by 50 points...but closed in there....

· the above chart by dear RCG ji says it all.. How ? lets see ahead...

• In the above charts i have tried to show all short to medium term channels in vogue...now see the blue triangle the lower end of that is exactly super imposed on the lower trend line of white channel...so there are 90% chances of what RCG ji is saying to be true...
• our next target comes to around 4950 breaking that level on up will take us to 5035 zone..but we can also expectt a down wave from 4950 starting 10 th october..lets see how much markets jump 2morrow and what trends unfold...good luck
• The green channel in above charts is the one in move as of now..that will govern important supports and breaking that on upside will call for end to this dull grinding phase...

05 OCT 11: AND NOW WE CREATE EXTREME FEAR

• Dear friends sorry for the delay ..i am slightly occupied 2day...the above chart by dear RCG ji is a gem..and he has given me SOS call to post this for all of u and the benefit therein...hats off to him
• well the wave from 5035 till 4721 moved in a channel and the top line is now at 4820 from where we retraced 2day....so a cross above that level shall be used 2 go long..good luck

04 OCTOBER : RA-ONE

• HI guys good morning today's poat is all humor blended with talent by dear RCG ji..we are calling it RA-ONE..as mentioned yesterday nifty turned exactly from 4825..hope it helped you..
• The above chart is RA-ONE wave:-
• C:4 ended at 5034
  C:5:1: 5034-4825=209
  1. 5034-4954=80
  2. 4954-5024=70
  3. 5024-4834=190
  4. 4834-4874=40
  5. 4874-4824=50 ( Kindly note the use of (4) as last digit of each wave by
  Automated computers )
  C:5:2:A: 4824-4870=46
  C:5:2:B: 4870-4843 =27 ( either complete or continuing)
  Ensuing C:5:2:C shall start on completion of C:5:2:B for 29 points to 46 points to up side ,FOLLOWED BY SUPER BAMBOOKAT C:5:3 for minimum 340 points to down

• The above chart is G-1
• C:1: 4759-5034=275
  C:2:A: 5034-4825=209
  & B to up side may be continuing , which is MARZI-KI-MALIK by nature
  Shall do minimum 23.6% to upside & more per her wish.
  
  
  well today a very good support is at 4790..this is likely to fullfill w-5 requirement of the option G-1....then it is a strong fibo support after 4825...As per our time analysis (our team mate nagraj is instrumental in this) we have come to conclusion that today the wave should end..max by tommorow opening...
  I am not posting my spidy web chart as the trendline u have to mark remains same with a small change that u have to join 5025 to 4875 for confirmation...good luck
  oh one point to add if we cross 4880 on upside then we should go on to 4940...

03 OCTOBER GAP TO GAP

HI Friends a happy navratras to all...the above chart is 15 min candle chart...nifty gave an initial indication of bottoming out but failed to confirm the upmove...that is why i stopped every one on board from going long...now we have got two confirmed resistance lines shown in red on the chart....

• looking at the daily charts..we r in confirm corrective wave from 4720 levels..and this is a typical formation a very feeble triangle...in such wave formations the prices keep moving in this pattern for a long time till clarity is emerged on either side...
  
• For today expect the gap shown in the chart to be filled..then a small move further down towards 4820-30 zone(being a fibo retracement zone)... and then look for the breach of red line shown in 15 min chart to go long ...good luck guys